Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 4.007988 4.691381 5.447125 6.343619 7.376796 8.528858 9.909566
2025-10-12 2.992136 3.922310 5.061663 6.554004 8.450740 10.774024 13.827940
2025-10-19 2.357906 3.397700 4.783952 6.753311 9.462679 13.040169 18.099371
2025-10-26 1.881508 2.942463 4.463733 6.779528 10.185264 14.972780 22.164892
2025-11-02 1.485766 2.501370 4.055687 6.571506 10.495058 16.320108 25.541087
2025-11-09 1.169032 2.106981 3.631087 6.240039 10.530803 17.221353 28.318931
2025-11-16 0.967929 1.856352 3.380561 6.124556 10.856835 18.564334 31.886985
2025-11-23 0.818816 1.664097 3.189285 6.065722 11.247023 20.027402 35.782604
2025-11-30 0.743286 1.591279 3.191871 6.337823 12.226600 22.559796 41.717356
2025-12-07 0.648922 1.462693 3.068425 6.354911 12.741591 24.333811 46.514995
2025-12-14 0.565195 1.339120 2.933013 6.324461 13.154932 25.957025 51.195687
2025-12-21 0.498339 1.238467 2.826246 6.331494 13.633386 27.738053 56.332849
2025-12-28 0.484919 1.257915 2.977844 6.901464 15.322931 32.028976 66.740544
2026-01-04 0.443821 1.205171 2.966147 7.125220 16.337495 35.129480 75.191413
2026-01-11 0.406650 1.154656 2.951237 7.339351 17.358326 38.350802 84.217768
2026-01-18 0.362531 1.077252 2.860770 7.367216 17.974873 40.804865 91.925435
2026-01-25 0.310754 0.968205 2.675221 7.142184 17.991917 41.993445 97.100911
2026-02-01 0.260353 0.851519 2.449819 6.783749 17.649319 42.359849 100.539232
2026-02-08 0.227615 0.778718 2.325423 6.658849 17.842852 43.926836 106.758679
2026-02-15 0.201672 0.720634 2.230460 6.595217 18.176236 45.841424 113.941032
2026-02-22 0.191481 0.710320 2.267044 6.889456 19.446395 50.058961 126.806887
2026-03-01 0.173151 0.668972 2.207085 6.907931 20.005118 52.637455 136.065762
2026-03-08 0.155393 0.625404 2.132972 6.875007 20.423357 54.915722 144.821244